Eyman adds new wrinkle to complex transportation debate

By DAVID AMMONS The Associated Press
7/27/02 4:56 PM

OLYMPIA (AP) -- The debate over the best fix for Washington's traffic mess -- and how to pay the eye-popping multibillion-dollar pricetag -- has suddenly gotten more complicated and now seems destined to stretch into 2003 and beyond.

The blame -- or praise -- goes in large measure to Tim Eyman and his merry band of tax rebels.

Here's how the policy traffic jam looks:

Voters already face a $7.7 billion transportation referendum this fall -- the biggest public works proposal ever placed on the statewide ballot.  It is embraced by the governor and virtually the entire political and business establishment.  But it's assailed on the left by environmentalists and on the right by tax critics and polls show very long odds for passage.

And now Eyman and his Permanent Offense organization have leaped into the fray, making the mega-package all the more unlikely to pass.  They've launched a no-new-tax alternative.

Eyman has touched off an unusual multi-year debate: This year's Referendum 51 versus his rival plan that won't get an actual vote until next year, probably not until November, 2003.  There is no direct parallel in the state's recent history.

Citizen Tim, returning big time from the political wilderness, also is sponsoring Initiative 776 this fall to make car tabs cheaper in some counties and to unravel some of the financing for Sound Transit's mass transit program in central Puget Sound.

And these three ballot measures could be joined by yet a fourth plan -- a proposal by environmentalists who want less emphasis on asphalt and more on rail, buses, car- and vanpooling and other choices.  This could come as an initiative, a bill in the Legislature or as part of a regional transportation plan that could go to voters in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties next year, possibly in November.

Keeping up, kids?

The dueling ballot measures, combined with Seattle's monorail proposal, possible actions by the 2003 and 2004 legislative sessions, and the Puget Sound regional tax vote offer the most sweeping public debate over transportation and taxes that the state has ever seen.

Polls consistently show that voters consider the transportation mess the most significant concern facing the Evercongested State -- but where will all these countercurrents leave us?

Will anything pass this year?

Next year?

In 2004?

Compounding the complexity is the new political reality that the voters, not the Legislature, apparently will have the final decision on the size and features of the package -- and how to pay for it.

"We're very much at a crossroads," says Peter Hurley, executive director of the Transportation Choices Coalition.

"This is where visions collide," says Eyman.  "We have been building to this point of deciding what we're going to do about transportation.  We have some totally different visions ...  and it will be decided outside the prism of Olympia."

------ THE PLAYERS AND THE PLANS Here's a primer on the major players and proposals:

--GAS TAX & THE ESTABLISHMENT.

R-51 is the Legislature's answer -- or at least the down-payment.  It asks voters to approve a 9-cent increase in the 23-cent-a-gallon gas tax that hasn't been boosted in more than a decade.  It also boosts trucking fees by 30 percent and imposes a surtax of 1 percent on the purchase price of vehicles.

That would provide $7.7 billion over a decade, including bond sales, to pay for highways, ferries, rail and transit projects statewide.  Everything from potholes to "mega-projects" would get attention.

Backers have lined up most of the state's movers and shakers.  The Democratic Party, business and labor, community leaders and many lawmakers are on board.
The GOP was persuaded to stay neutral.  A major holdout is the environmental community, which sees the plan as too wedded to a "car culture."

Backers say it's a sensible mix of asphalt and mass transit and reflects a belief that a major infusion of dollars is essential.

--EYMAN'S COMEBACK VEHICLE.

Eyman, ramping up his political comeback after a hoo-ha over taking campaign money as salary, has offered a tax-free alternative.  He fully expects the plan to catch fire and cement the reputation of his initiative factory, Permanent Offense, as the taxpayer's advocate.

His plan is simple -- too simple, say his numerous critics.  Instead of boosting taxes, he would divert a big stream of revenue that currently flows into the general treasury
-- the state sales tax on cars -- and use it exclusively for roads.  The plan also would allow all cars to use carpool lanes except during rush hour, and would direct the state auditor to scrutinize all state and local transportation programs and funds.

The theme, he says, is that "Washington taxpayers insist on exhausting all other options before tax increases are even considered."

The big question, of course, is how lawmakers would plug the estimated $760 million budget hole that would result.  The sales tax on cars now amounts to about 5 percent of the general budget, which pays for schools and colleges, health care, prisons, parks, welfare and other services.  Eyman doesn't squarely address the question.

It's too late for Eyman to set up a head-to-head showdown with R-51 on the November ballot, but he's offering it as something for voters to consider as they decide R-51.

"We're plopping this little A-bomb in the middle of the debate," he says with a delighted laugh.  "We're making all the right people angry.  What's wrong with a no-new-taxes alternative?  Let's give the voters a choice."

He insists he isn't explicitly asking for a "no" vote on 51, but that's clearly the point.
His initiative would go to the 2003 Legislature, which would presumably send it, and possibly an alternative, to the 2003 fall ballot.

Political leaders were already deeply worried about R-51 and now they privately wonder if anything can save it.  At the very least, they're diverted and on the defensive, having to explain why they think Eyman's plan wouldn't work and how it would affect schools and other services.

"It does make things complicated," says Senate Transportation Chairwoman Mary Margaret Haugen, D-Camano Island.  "This is a very discouraging turn of events."

--ALL EYMAN ALL THE TIME.  Also complicating the transportation debate is Eyman's I-776, which would roll back the basic car-tab tax to $30 a pop, cutting funds for Sound Transit and perhaps forcing a new public vote on the whole beleaguered project.  The plan also would freeze trucking fees, even if R-51 passes.  The no-new-tax plan would eliminate the car sales surtax.  The bottom line is that Eyman would provide new dollars for highways and ferries, not mass transit.  In a way, that's a rerun of I-745, his failed plan to force 90 percent of all transportation taxes to go to roads.

--GREEN, GREEN.  Environmentalists plan to offer their own alternative early this fall, also in time to let voters see a different approach.

"What is Plan B?" Hurley asks.  "The bottom line is that both Eyman's two initiatives and R-51 try to build our way out of congestion.  They would be significant steps backward.

"It is incumbent to put a positive alternative out on the table.  A moderate and balanced package has the opportunity to change the debate.  We think voters want more choices, more balance in the system, a package that is probably less expensive and includes money for HOV lanes, transit money, Amtrak, and efficiency programs like commute-trip reduction.

"We will use the likely failure of 51 as a springboard to put this innovations package in front of the Legislature."

Dueling initiatives in 2003 is a distinct possibility, although environmentalists might decide to concentrate on passing a good regional transportation package, he says.

------ POST-51 Haugen says if R-51 is defeated, Gov.  Gary Locke should call an immediate special session to pass a new plan.  Her preference is for a package adopted in Olympia.
Some lawmakers already are talking about a 3-to-5 cent gas tax hike as a stopgap plan, primarily to maintain the current highway system and to match local and federal dollars.

Hurley says the jury is out on whether lawmakers would act if 51 is defeated, as he expects.  That puts more attention on the regional roads-and-transit package now being cobbled together for a public vote.

And so another ballot-box collision could happen next year.  The regional plan could be on the same November ballot as Eyman's latest, a green initiative and maybe even something from the Legislature.

And the whole mess could be thrown back into lawmakers' laps in 2004.

And the voters after that.

Will anything ever be final?

It looks like a long, contentious, complicated debate, with no clear paths yet in sight.

------ David Ammons is the AP's state political writer and has covered the statehouse since 1971.  He may be reached at P.O.  Box 607, Olympia, WA, 98507, or at dammons(at)ap.org on the Internet.