Outer Suburbs' Job Boom - Prince William Employment Growth Rate Is Tops in Nation

By Mike Flagg and Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 27, 2004; Page A01

Many of the region's outer suburbs are adding jobs faster than
most other large counties in the nation, according to Labor
Department data released yesterday, signaling that businesses
are expanding at a roaring pace in areas that have historically
been bedroom communities.

Prince William County added jobs at the fastest rate of any big
county in the United States in the year ended in March, with
an 8 percent rise. Loudoun County recorded a 5.5 percent gain in
that span, ranking sixth in the nation. Frederick and Fairfax
counties each reported 4.2 percent job growth, tying for 18th.
The United States as a whole added jobs at a 0.8 percent rate in
the same period.

The remarkable pace of job growth in the outer suburbs reflects
a confluence of factors, said economists and business owners. The
region is adding tens of thousands of government contracting jobs,
and Northern Virginia has captured a disproportionate share of
that growth, helping to account for particularly strong results
in Prince William and Loudoun. With their populations climbing
rapidly, outer suburbs are also adding thousands of jobs building
new houses, teaching at new schools, and operating cash registers
at new stores. The rapidly rising populations have also made
these counties convenient for commuters.

"We looked all over the place," said Marco A. Monsalve, president
of McManis & Monsalve Associates, a consulting firm formerly located
on K Street in the District that moved its 23 employees to Manassas
this year. "But as it turned out, and I know it seems strange,
Prince William was more central from a commute point of view than
the other options, because of where people live and where our
clients are."

Some of the outer suburbs have also tried harder than their
close-in neighbors to woo companies by offering fast-tracking
for permits and other breaks, according to some business
owners. Executives of West Virginia's ProLogic Inc. decided to open
a branch in Manassas, because it was close to where many executives
live and because the county "was good to us, too, in getting us set
up," said Paul Maguire, a vice president. "Try getting a
building inspector to come out for a small company in Fairfax. It
can take months."

Most of the companies hiring in Prince William were small companies
like ProLogic and McManis & Monsalve. No single company announced
hiring more than 200 people at one time in the last year, according
to the Prince William Department of Economic Development.

And some say the job growth will continue. For example,
high-tech manufacturer Micron Technology Inc. has 300 to 400
job openings at its factory in Manassas, which makes chips for
personal computers and cell phones, according to David Parker, a
company spokesman. "You've got everyone talking about jobs leaving
the country," he said. "We're deploying our most-advanced technology
at this facility."

Development experts say such rapid job growth in the outer suburbs
can bolster county budgets by adding companies that pay taxes
and cutting lengthy commutes. But it can also create more
traffic congestion and pollution in the county and can drain
county services.

"You may raise the tax base by creating these kinds of jobs,"
said Edward M. Risse, a consultant with Synergy Planning Inc.
in Warrenton. "But not as much as you create traffic
problems."

To be sure, the District and close-in suburbs still account for the
vast majority of the region's employment base, and outer counties
like Prince William remain primarily bedroom communities. For
example, Arlington County has 42 percent fewer residents than
Prince William, but 63 percent more jobs.

And they continued to add jobs, too, just at a slower pace than
their neighbors outside the Capital Beltway. The District added jobs
at a 0.8 percent pace, Montgomery added jobs at a 0.5 rate,
Prince George's at 2 percent, and Arlington at 2.8 percent.

The percentages in the outer counties look large, in part, because
they start from such a small base, and thus adding a few thousand
jobs can make for extraordinary additions in percentage terms.
For example, Fairfax County actually added 21,700 jobs, while
Prince William added 6,900 jobs and Loudoun gained 5,700.

Over time, however, the outer suburbs may catch up, according to
Anirban Basu, chief executive of Sage Policy Group Inc., an
economic consulting firm in Baltimore. Job growth in the city's
distant suburbs is part of a long pattern. In the 1950s and
'60s, Arlington shifted from being almost exclusively a
residential community to a place with a hefty job base. Fairfax
and Montgomery did the same in the 1970s and 1980s. Loudoun,
Prince William, and Frederick counties are in that process now.

"Jobs follow people," said Robert E. Lang, director of the
Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, which is in Alexandria.
"First people move to a place, then retail follows, and then jobs
follow retail."

So far, much of Prince William's job growth has been concentrated
in longtime staples. In 2003, construction employment rose by a
fifth, to 12,000 jobs. Its retail employment grew by 8 percent,
to almost 17,000 jobs. Together those two businesses accounted
for almost half the gain in jobs in 2003, according to the
Prince William Department of Economic Development.

"Like most suburban counties, Prince William built its economy over
the last 30 years on residential spending," said Stephen S.
Fuller, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George
Mason University. "So retail is very strong, and Prince William
has an enormous concentration of jobs in retail, most in the range
of $20,000 to $30,000 a year."

But with wealthier residents moving to Prince William, the
employment picture has been evolving, according to economists. "Now
all of a sudden the residents moving there are more affluent,
and they're more attractive to other kinds of companies locating
there," Fuller said.

Economists point to technology companies such as ProLogic, which
makes battlefield display panels that let soldiers monitor battles
in real time. Last year it hired 26 people, for a total of 47 in
the Prince William office. By the time its new building opens in
the spring, it may have as many 70 people, most of them making
$55,000 a year or more, ProLogic's Maguire said.

"That's what we call 'Tysons Corner wages,' " Maguire said.

Staff writer Michael Barbaro contributed to this report.

© 2004 The Washington Post Company